All states · California
Updated October 2026 · ranks 13 of 50
Yes, for most households
6 kW system · $16,800 after incentives · $1,745 returned in year one
0 yrs25 yrs
At 9.4 years the system repays itself well within the warranty period of its major components, though the capital is committed for over a decade. For a household likely to move within six years, the effect on resale value matters more than the payback figure.
For most households, yes. 9.4 years falls inside the warranty period of every major component, although the capital is committed for more than a decade.
The case modeled here approximates an average California household on the state average rate of 33.6¢, with an unshaded roof and no financing: $16,800 of capital, $1,745 returned in the first year, and break-even near year 9.4. Above-average consumption, a south-facing roof or a competitive installed price shorten that period; shading, a loan carrying a dealer fee, or a sale within six years lengthen it. Because exports earn only 4.0¢, daytime occupancy carries measurable value: a household absent between nine and five performs appreciably worse than this figure.
At 33.6¢ per kilowatt-hour, California pays 104% more for electricity than the United States average of 16.5¢. A high retail rate is the principal driver of a short payback, since each kilowatt-hour generated displaces an expensive one.
A 6 kW array in California generates approximately 10,063 kWh a year, above the national median. Irradiance is the one input that no change in policy can remove.
California operates under NEM 3.0, which pays approximately 5¢ for exported power against a retail rate of 33.6¢. Exports are therefore worth roughly a sixth of the purchase price, and California payback figures published before 2023 no longer apply. Pairing generation with storage, so that evening consumption is drawn from a battery rather than the grid, restores much of the economics at additional cost.
California offers no state rebate or tax credit at present, so the installed price of $16,800 stands. With Section 25D expired there is no federal credit to deduct either, the first year in over a decade in which that has been the case.
A 6 kW system, the size typical of California households, costs approximately $16,800 installed at $2.8 a watt before deductions. No deduction applies in California: there is no state rebate, no state tax credit, and no federal credit following the expiry of Section 25D on 31 December 2025. Prices vary with roof complexity, equipment selection and local installer demand; quotes $0.40 a watt either side of this figure are common. Smaller systems cost more per watt and larger ones less, although a larger array is worth less here, since exports earn only 4.0¢.
| System size | 6 kW |
|---|---|
| Annual production | 10,063 kWh |
| Installed cost | $16,800 |
| Incentives | none |
| Net cost | $16,800 |
| Electricity rate | 33.6¢ / kWh |
| Export credit | 4.0¢ / kWh |
| Year-one saving | $1,745 |
| Break-even | 9.4 years |
| 25-year gain | $37,147 |
Of the 50 states published here, California ranks 13th for how quickly a bought system repays itself. Fastest right now: Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts. Slowest: South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, Tennessee. Compare them all on the map.
Solar economics change at state lines rather than at county lines, because the export tariff and the netting period do. These states share a border with California, and the figure each produces on the same assumptions.
About $16,800 installed for a 6 kW system at $2.8 a watt. No deduction applies in California: no state rebate, no state credit, and no federal credit following the expiry of Section 25D. A system sized to daytime consumption costs less and repays faster here, because exports earn only 4.0¢.
Yes, for most households. A 6 kW system breaks even in 9.4 years on the assumptions used here, following the expiry of the 30% federal tax credit on 31 December 2025.
Approximately $1,745 in the first year on a 10,063 kWh system, rising thereafter as California electricity rates increase. Almost all of that derives from power consumed as it is generated; at 4.0¢, export earns little.
A 6 kW array is about 14 modules at 430 W and generates 10,063 kWh a year here, which covers a household using roughly that much. Sizing beyond on-site use is poor value in California, since the surplus earns 4.0¢ against a 33.6¢ retail rate. The sizing calculator works it out from a bill.
Yes, for most households. The retail rate here is 33.6¢ against a national average of 16.5¢, exports earn 4.0¢, and a 6 kW system breaks even in 9.4 years. What separates California from states with similar sunshine is the rate and the export tariff, not the weather.
California operates under NEM 3.0, which pays approximately 5¢ for exported power against a retail rate of 33.6¢.
Generation is taken from NREL PVWatts v8 for the largest metropolitan area in California, south-facing at 20°. The retail rate is from the EIA and the export credit from the state's net metering rule. The break-even figure incorporates 0.5% annual panel degradation, 3% annual electricity price growth, $150 a year in maintenance and an inverter replacement in year 12. The federal credit is set to $0 — Section 25D expired 31 December 2025. Imports and exports are netted over short intervals, so only about 45% of generation offsets consumption at the full retail rate. Full method and sources. Privacy. Export terms checked against the state source in August 2026.
These are estimates for comparison between states, not quotations. Roof orientation, shading, consumption pattern and installer pricing all affect the result. At least three written quotations are advisable before purchase.