Updated 2026-10-04 · 50 states verified
Break-even periods for a 6 kW residential system, calculated from current retail electricity rates, each state's own export tariff and the incentives presently available. Selecting a state shows its figures; each state page sets out the reasoning. All 50 states are published, each verified against the serving utility's own tariff.
THE 30% FEDERAL CREDIT IS GONE.
Section 25D expired on 31 December 2025. Every figure below assumes no federal credit, which is why
these periods run longer than those published on most solar sites.
What changed →
Individual figures are more reliable than any state average. Adjusting these recalculates everything above.
Irradiance is the least important of the variables. Every state in the table above receives enough of it; Germany installs solar at lower irradiance than any US state. What separates a nine-year payback from a nineteen-year one is the value of a kilowatt-hour in the state concerned, and the compensation offered for the kilowatt-hours a household does not consume itself.
This is the principal driver. A solar panel does not earn revenue; it displaces a purchase. In a state charging 30¢ per kilowatt-hour, each unit generated is worth twice what the same unit is worth where the rate is 15¢ — identical equipment, identical irradiance, half the return. This is why Hawaii and the Northeast recover costs fastest despite modest sunshine, and why the low-rate states of the interior take longest despite abundant sun.
A household consumes perhaps a third of its generation at the moment of production. The remainder is exported, and its value varies more widely than any other input on this site: from the full retail rate in states operating genuine net metering, down to roughly a sixth of retail under California's NEM 3.0. Two identical properties either side of a state line can differ by six years on payback for this reason alone.
This variable is absent from most comparisons and matters as much as the export rate. Before any export payment is calculated, utilities net exports against imports — over a fifteen-minute interval in some states, over the whole monthly bill in others. Under monthly netting, power exported at midday offsets power drawn at 7pm at the full retail rate, and only the month-end surplus is discounted. A state paying 75% of retail with monthly netting therefore outperforms a state paying 100% with fifteen-minute netting.
Installed prices range from approximately $2.50 to $4.50 a watt according to labor, permitting and, in Hawaii's case, shipping across an ocean. Each state's own figure is used here rather than a national average, because applying a low national figure to an expensive market produces a payback that is favorable and unreal.
Until the end of 2025 a 30% federal tax credit reduced the price of a typical system by roughly $5,000 and shortened almost every payback in the country by three to five years. It has expired. Most published figures, including some revised during 2026, continue to include it. Everything here assumes zero, which is why these periods are longer than those found elsewhere. They are simply current.
Below eight years, a purchased system is a sound investment for a household intending to remain in the property. Between eight and twelve years it remains sound but slow, and the expected period of ownership matters more than the figure itself. Beyond eighteen years the payback extends past the point at which the inverter, and possibly the roof, require replacement, and capital placed elsewhere would generally return more; solar at that point is a reasonable choice for backup power or emissions reduction rather than as an investment. The controls above apply an individual bill, roof size and installed price to these assumptions. A state average is a starting point rather than an answer.