All states · Arizona
Updated October 2026 · ranks 16 of 50
Yes, for most households
6 kW system · $14,000 after incentives · $1,285 returned in year one
0 yrs25 yrs
At 10.7 years the system repays itself well within the warranty period of its major components, though the capital is committed for over a decade. For a household likely to move within six years, the effect on resale value matters more than the payback figure.
For most households, yes. 10.7 years falls inside the warranty period of every major component, although the capital is committed for more than a decade.
The case modeled here approximates an average Arizona household on the state average rate of 15.4¢, with an unshaded roof and no financing: $14,000 of capital, $1,285 returned in the first year, and break-even near year 10.7. Above-average consumption, a south-facing roof or a competitive installed price shorten that period; shading, a loan carrying a dealer fee, or a sale within six years lengthen it. Because exports earn only 6.3¢, daytime occupancy carries measurable value: a household absent between nine and five performs appreciably worse than this figure.
At 15.4¢ per kilowatt-hour, electricity in Arizona costs 7% less than the United States average of 16.5¢. Inexpensive grid power lowers household bills but weakens solar economics, since each kilowatt-hour generated displaces a cheap one.
A 6 kW array in Arizona generates approximately 10,531 kWh a year, above the national median. Irradiance is the one input that no change in policy can remove.
Arizona provides little or no net metering. Exported power earns approximately 6.3¢ against a retail rate of 15.4¢, roughly a quarter of its purchase price. The practical consequence is that a smaller system, consumed almost entirely on site, repays faster than a large one - the reverse of the position in full-net-metering states.
State support reduces the installed price of $15,000 by $1,000, to $14,000 before financing. This comprises $1,000 of state rebate and tax credit.
A 6 kW system, the size typical of Arizona households, costs approximately $15,000 installed at $2.5 a watt before deductions. State support reduces this by $1,000, to $14,000. Prices vary with roof complexity, equipment selection and local installer demand; quotes $0.40 a watt either side of this figure are common. Smaller systems cost more per watt and larger ones less, although a larger array is worth less here, since exports earn only 6.3¢.
| System size | 6 kW |
|---|---|
| Annual production | 10,531 kWh |
| Installed cost | $15,000 |
| Incentives | -$1,000 |
| Net cost | $14,000 |
| Electricity rate | 15.4¢ / kWh |
| Export credit | 6.3¢ / kWh |
| Year-one saving | $1,285 |
| Break-even | 10.7 years |
| 25-year gain | $24,265 |
Of the 50 states published here, Arizona ranks 16th for how quickly a bought system repays itself. Fastest right now: Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts. Slowest: South Dakota, Louisiana, North Dakota, Tennessee. Compare them all on the map.
Solar economics change at state lines rather than at county lines, because the export tariff and the netting period do. These states share a border with Arizona, and the figure each produces on the same assumptions.
About $15,000 installed for a 6 kW system at $2.5 a watt. State support reduces this by $1,000, to $14,000. A system sized to daytime consumption costs less and repays faster here, because exports earn only 6.3¢.
Yes, for most households. A 6 kW system breaks even in 10.7 years on the assumptions used here, following the expiry of the 30% federal tax credit on 31 December 2025.
Approximately $1,285 in the first year on a 10,531 kWh system, rising thereafter as Arizona electricity rates increase. Almost all of that derives from power consumed as it is generated; at 6.3¢, export earns little.
A 6 kW array is about 14 modules at 430 W and generates 10,531 kWh a year here, which covers a household using roughly that much. Sizing beyond on-site use is poor value in Arizona, since the surplus earns 6.3¢ against a 15.4¢ retail rate. The sizing calculator works it out from a bill.
Yes, for most households. The retail rate here is 15.4¢ against a national average of 16.5¢, exports earn 6.3¢, and a 6 kW system breaks even in 10.7 years. What separates Arizona from states with similar sunshine is the rate and the export tariff, not the weather.
Arizona provides little or no net metering.
Generation is taken from NREL PVWatts v8 for the largest metropolitan area in Arizona, south-facing at 20°. The retail rate is from the EIA and the export credit from the state's net metering rule. The break-even figure incorporates 0.5% annual panel degradation, 3% annual electricity price growth, $150 a year in maintenance and an inverter replacement in year 12. The federal credit is set to $0 — Section 25D expired 31 December 2025. Imports and exports are netted over short intervals, so only about 65% of generation offsets consumption at the full retail rate. Full method and sources. Privacy. Export terms checked against the state source in August 2026.
These are estimates for comparison between states, not quotations. Roof orientation, shading, consumption pattern and installer pricing all affect the result. At least three written quotations are advisable before purchase.